Forecasts for the 2005 paddy season have been released by several countries in the Southern Hemisphere, which have started planting their main paddy crops. Again constrained by a lack of water for irrigation, Australia expects to harvest less than half the levels achieved prior to 2003. The 2005 outlook is also poor in South America, where insufficient rainfall has delayed plantings. Based on early forecasts from the countries, production could fall in Brazil and in Uruguay. On the other hand, production is set to keep rising in Argentina.
On the demand side, Brazil, China (mainland), the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Philippines and the United States are all anticipated to reduce their imports in 2005. Nigeria could also purchase less, if the current protective policies become more effective. By contrast, imports to Bangladesh and Indonesia are likely to rebound.
International rice price prospects in the coming months will depend to a large extent on the size and quality of the harvests currently under progress. However, with production setbacks anticipated in several of the major exporting countries, supplies available for trade in 2005 might be limited. As import demand is anticipated to remain strong, the current world rice price weakness is likely to be only temporary and quotations could regain momentum next year.
Rice Market Monitor
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